Too soon Nigel. Too soon.

The future of our nation already rests on the shoulders of Nigel Farage. He has trapped himself by his success and seems to know it. He will decide the next government.

Sources close to the Reform UK leader told The Mail on Sunday that he would be open to working with the former PM ‘in the national interest’ to defeat Labour.

Too soon Nigel. Too soon.

Following his October 2024 article in the Telegraph, I set out The Problem with Nigel Farage: he alienates too many people who might vote for a centre-right party and, though much of his critique of the Conservatives is right, frustration is not a strategy. I concluded that the impediments to moving from 5 MPs to forming a capable government make Reform a mistake: it would take decades to succeed.

Since then, things have moved on.

Assuming Reform and the Conservatives appeal mostly to the same voters, there are only three ways for the centre-right to form a government:

• Reform wipes out the Conservatives

• The Conservatives wipe out Reform

• Some kind of deal is done to bring the right together, whether a merger or an electoral pact leading to a coalition.

The politics of all three are very difficult and unsatisfactory. The future seems wearily inevitable, even as Reform take votes from Labour and mobilise those who do not usually vote. As this weekend’s press salivates over the prospects of a deal, here is what I think will happen, bearing in mind all I know about the characters involved, their motivations and their weaknesses.

To be clear, I am not much interested in party, nor have I ever been. My goal is a future for the UK which is happy, prosperous and free. That requires a competent and capable centre-right government of any party, or a coalition, willing to make the hard choices over many years to avoid disaster and set us on the right path.