What the next Conservative leader faces

A popularity contest is not enough: government spending is forecast to soar beyond revenues. The next Tory leader has an historic task ahead: balancing the nation's books, likely in deep crisis.

The Conservative leadership contest has been shallow: a popularity contest of vague but attractive ambitions for what should be achieved and why, without any serious substance about how.

From war to our response to climate change, criminal justice to poverty fighting, we face difficult and sometimes existential risks and problems. The task of securing peace, prosperity and social progress is an immense challenge, one which requires real resources to back imagination, vision, humility and resolve.

In this post, I will set out how severe the challenge is, using authoritative facts plus the best projections we have. It is a case I have made many times over years.

Soaring spending plus stagnant revenues

The most recent fiscal risks and sustainability report from the Office for Budget Responsibility provides a stark illustration of spending soaring beyond revenues:

Our problem in a nutshell

They articulate clearly the future pressures we face: an ageing population, climate change and geopolitical tensions. The public finances are on an unsustainable path and governments will need to take “mitigating policy action” to prevent that debt spiral occurring.

Our problem in a nutshell: debt

That is a euphemism for deep cuts where they hurt most: pensions, healthcare, education, social care. It would be a time of extraordinary suffering, a time difficult to reconcile with the pressures of democracy.

This nightmare can be seen to be crystallising now in a general state of decay and failure. There is reason to hope, but it relies on leadership with a firm grasp of reality, a clear plan and the skill to carry it through.